There were 546,000 older offenders arrested for criminal activity in 2019 per the FBI.
High percentages of older offenders are arrested after release from state prisons.
There are advocates who insist that we release most or nearly all older offenders from prison. They insist they are harmless. Are they correct?
I did a ride-along with parole and probation agents years ago visiting those on supervision in their homes. We went to the house of a 62-year-old with a long criminal history. “Why are we going there,” I asked. “How dangerous can this person possibly be? They responded with the observation that there are a multitude of older offenders who simply won’t quit crime.
A basic premise of criminology is that older offenders age out of crime. The same thought applies to older offenders not returning to the justice system after release from prison. Advocates see older offenders as low-hanging fruit and suggest that we should release as many as possible from incarceration.
We debate an offender’s commitment to crime with the thought that programs, religion, age, or family ties lessen one’s involvement in criminal activities. When looking at a broad range of data, older offenders become less committed to criminal activity.
But what’s somewhat astounding are the numbers arrested for the 50 + age group or older individuals who are rearrested before and after state prison.
People Arrested By Age
The data below is from the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System, NIBRS. Looking at the 51+ age categories, we see that 546,000 older people were arrested. The same category was responsible for 203,000 violent crimes.
Yes, that pales in comparison to the 6,543,257 arrested for all categories and the 1,795,462 arrested for crimes against persons, yet the numbers for the 50+ category seem high if we buy the criminological premise that older people age out of crime.
Note that about 7,000 of the nation’s 18,000 law enforcement agencies did not send crime data to the FBI’s new NIBRS program, thus the numbers presented are an undercount.
Recidivism-Arrests After Prison
The data below is from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. For the 55-64 category, 56 percent released from state prison were arrested after 10 years. For those in the 65+ category, 40 percent were rearrested after 10 years.
The US Sentencing Commission
Data from the US Sentencing Commission focuses on offenders in federal prison who are principally there for major drug and immigration offenses versus state correctional systems where most (58 percent) represent violent offenders. The Commission issued a report on older offenders observing that:
Older offenders had a much larger proportion of fraud offenses (17.8%) and sex offenses (7.3%), compared to offenders under the age of 50 (6.4% and 4.1%, respectively).
Older offenders were sentenced for violent offenses (8.0%) slightly less often than all other offenders (9.8%). Roughly 30 percent of both older offenders (27.7%) and all other offenders (31.2%) were sentenced for a drug trafficking offense.
Older offenders (5.3%) received an aggravating role adjustment (editor’s note-reason for an enhanced sentence) as frequently as offenders under age 50 (3.6%). This adjustment is based on the offender’s role in the offense as an organizer, leader, manager, or supervisor.
Although they had less extensive criminal histories, nearly the same proportion of older offenders (2.2%) received career offender status as did offenders under the age of 50 (2.3%).
The recidivism rate of older offenders (21.3%) was less than half that of offenders under the age of 50 (53.4%).
The justice system is overwhelmed by criminal activity and increasing violence. We all understand that law enforcement and corrections have limited capacities. It makes sense to look at older offenders as to their “dangerousness” and suitability for alternatives to incarceration.
There are advocates who argue that older offenders age out of crime thus any effort to hold them in a correctional setting (or putting them on parole and probation) is simply a waste of time.
“There’s been a more recent shift, Maschi (Tina Maschi, a Fordham University professor and former prison social worker who studies aging prisoners) said in a phone interview, toward exposing problems in the criminal justice system and demanding reforms. When Maschi first began researching, she says, few people were talking about problems associated with keeping older adults locked up. But now, it’s caught on, Maschi said, thanks to a younger generation that “gets the agism part of it.” The public momentum, she said, highlights how the issue relates to the intersection of justice, aging, health, and social systems. “It affects everybody,” Maschi pointed out. “Both victims and offenders.”
I understand both sides of the equation. I suspect that many older individuals are in prison for repeat violent or property crimes. Keeping older inmates in prison (along with their health problems) comes with an enormous cost.
But the data is clear, there were 546,000 older offenders arrested for criminal activity in 2019 (the latest available data from the FBI-an admitted undercount).
High percentages of older “state” offenders are arrested after release from prison per the above document from the Bureau Of Justice Statistics.
The report from the US Sentencing Commission provides a different picture of federal recidivism. The recidivism rate of older offenders (21.3%) was less than half that of offenders under the age of 50 (53.4%). This is based on eight years of data compared to ten years for the Bureau of Justice Statistics document cited above on state offenders. Federal inmates serve 85 percent of their sentences. There is the possibility that older offenders serving 85 percent die in prison or are really aged upon release, thus skewing rates of recidivism.
The mandate is for those in the Commission’s study to be US citizens in a system where immigration offenses are one of two main categories (along with major drug offenses) which may also skew results. Their backgrounds are roughly the same as for younger inmates, and fraud was their primary crime which brings us to the paragraph below.
Combining the 61-65 and the 66+ age groups, it’s clear that older Americans have high numbers of criminal victimization (when compared to other age groups) for burglary, counterfeiting and forgery, destruction/damage/vandalism, embezzlement, fraud, larceny and theft, and motor vehicle theft per the FBI.
Note that this finding is from an early version of the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System. Fraud and the elderly is clearly an issue. If we accept that most crime (both victims and offenders) is within similar demographics, older offenders may be responsible for a high percentage of crimes against the elderly.
Within the justice system’s limitations, we must focus our attention and resources on those who are a danger to public safety. But at the same time, many older offenders are clearly committed to criminal activity and cannot be ignored.
“The economy is going to collapse”: Here are 18 signs that America is on the brink of a catastrophic economic disaster
The following includes content which is editorial in nature and which reflects the opinion of the writer.
USA- If you’ve been to the gas station or the grocery store lately, what you’re about to read will come as no surprise. It is quite obvious to anyone who isn’t the most died in the wool Biden supporter that things are really, really bad right now. How bad? How about “economic collapse” bad?
According to a commentary in The Washington Standard, Michael Snyder, a graduate of the University of Florida Law School and publisher of The Economic Collapse Blog warns that he has never seen the level of “economic pessimism” that he is currently witnessing. And he notes, he isn’t the only one who feels that way, and senses even the public is aware that we are headed in a very bad direction.
As we are painfully aware, history often repeats itself, and what we are currently witnessing is the beginnings of an economic collapse which would eclipse the pain we experienced in the early 1980s coming out of the Carter presidency. Some, he notes, believe this go around is going to be even worse, with one Wall Street investor, Michael Novograts, predicting “the economy is going to collapse.”
“The economy is going to collapse,” he told MarketWatch. We are going to go into a really fast recession, and you can see that in lots of ways,” he added.
“Housing is starting to roll over,” he said. “Inventories have exploded. There are layoffs in multiple industries, and the Fed is stuck [with a position of having to] hike [interest rates] until inflation rolls over.”
Snyder, however, believes that “the economy is already starting to collapse,” and warns of 18 signs that the economic meltdown has indeed already begun.
- Stock prices- have taken a dive over the past few weeks, with some $3 trillion dollars in wealth evaporating from investments such as 401k’s. The selloff has not just hurt big investors—it’s slammed Americans’ retirement savings as well.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 30,000 for the first time in over a year. That level is a psychological bellwether and Snyder believes if it doesn’t recover above that level it will serve to further panic a lot of investors.
- The Dow is off 19% from its all-time high
- The S&P 500 is down 24 percent from its all-time high
- The Nasdaq is down 34 percent from its all-time high. That equates to one-third of the Nasdaq’s value being slashed.
- Crypto, long thought to be the savior of our monetary system has lost two-thirds of its value since the peak of its market. Where last November the value of all crypto had flown past the three-trillion dollar mark, it current sits at less than one trillion dollars.
- For those who are looking to buy a house, mortgage rates soared this past week to 35-year highs, which will eviscerate the housing market. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year loan soared from 5.23% to 5.78%. Just one year ago, the average rate was 2.93%.
- Where recently people were bidding up prices on homes well above asking price, the largest percentage ever recorded reduced the list price on their homes during the four-week period ending June 12th.
- In some parts of the U.S., home prices have already collapsed by as much as 20 percent.
- Compared to one year ago, the total number of mortgage applications was down 52.7 percent last week.
- Housing starts fell 14.4 percent in May.
- Permits for construction of new homes fell 7 percent in May.
- Wholesale prices continue to soar at “a very alarming pace…” The producer price index rose 0.8% for the month and 10.8% over the past year. That rise kept pace with Dow Jones estimates and doubled the 0.4% pace in April.
- According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, it is projecting second quarter economic growth to be 0%…yes, that’s correct…zero.
- The Philadelphia Fed Business Index for June read -3.3, the first such contraction since the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Small business owners responded to a survey, saying they are “feeling their gloomiest in nearly five decades.”
- Nearly six out of ten manufacturers in the United States believe that a recession is coming.
- Bloomberg is projecting the likelihood of a recession during the next two years is 5 percent.
All of this of course runs completely contrary to what the administration and financial “experts” were talking about around a year or so ago. Remember when we were told that inflation was “transitory?”
Well as we’ve found out, you can only print so much money out of thin air before the laws of economics go into full force. You can only bid up real estate prices by $40-50k above asking price (or more) for a while before it bites you in the keester. Remember when Biden bragged about how wonderful the stock market was doing? Seems like a distant memory now.
As Snyder points out, for every time the “experts” “kicked the can down the road,” they only served to make things worse long term. Now, the chickens have come home to roost. The short-term outlook sucks and the long-term outlook isn’t much better.
Many of us remember the early 1980s and not fondly. Right now it seems like we took Marty McFly’s Delorean “back to the future” of 1981. And all we want is our 2019 back…”mean tweets” and $2.00/gallon gas.
For more on dementia Joe’s war on the American economy and our fossil fuel industry, we invite you to:
WASHINGTON, D.C.- On Monday, April 25th, the Biden administration reversed a Trump-era plan that would have allowed the federal government to lease more than two-thirds of the country’s largest acreage of public land to oil and gas drilling.
Oil and gas development in the NPR-A is broadly supported by hard-working Alaskans of all backgrounds—Republicans & Democrats, union workers, Alaska Natives.
Joe Biden has once again sold them all out, siding instead with the coastal, liberal elites. https://t.co/qnUojYStCw
— Sen. Dan Sullivan (@SenDanSullivan) April 26, 2022
According to reports, this decisions returns to an Obama-era administration plan that allows fossil fuel extraction in up to 25 percent of the reserve, compared to the Trump administration’s effort to open up 82 percent of the land to drilling.
The Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) decision will shrink the amount of land available for lease in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A), which is a nearly 23 million acre region that is home to wildlife like caribou and polar bears.
In January, the BLM had announced its review of the 2020 Integrated Activity Plan (IAP) for the area and on Monday, April 25th, the Department of Interior signed a new Record of Decision (ROD) to guide the management of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.
When the Biden administration first indicated that it was considering reversing the Trump-era policy, it sparked outrage from Alaska’s congressional delegation. Sen. Lisa Murkowski said in a news release back in January:
“Sweeping restrictions like this, which are being imposed even as the Biden administration implores OPEC+ to produce more oil – demonstrate everything that is wrong with its energy policies.”
The BLM says it's ditching a Trump administration plan for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and will return to a 2013 plan that's more protective of Teshekpuk Lake, a large wetlands important to shorebirds, loons and caribou.https://t.co/3WNdYGdt39
— KTOO (@KTOOpubmedia) April 26, 2022
The move allegedly comes after the number of oil and gas permits approved by the BLM for drilling on public lands declined to its lowest number under the Biden administration. According to the BLM, the reserve generated more than $56 million in oil and gas lease revenue in 2019.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil and gas production on the reserve also has the potential to release over 5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is roughly equivalent to the amount of carbon released in the entire country in 2019.
The decision made on Monday, April 25th, ensures that the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska will be managed consistent with the 2013 IAP, while adding more protective lease stipulations and operating procedures for threatened and endangered species.
Kristen Monsell, oceans legal director of the Center for Biological Diversity, said that the Biden administration’s reversal is not enough to address the climate crisis and end new fossil fuel extraction. She said in a statement:
“More Arctic drilling also means more oil spills, more polluted communities and more harm to polar bears and other vulnerable wildlife. Biden officials can and must use their power to help us avoid disastrous climate change and support the transition to a just, renewable economy.”
According to reports, the 2013 IPA that was crafted by the Obama administration, is especially protective of Teshekpuk Lake, which is home to important shorebird like loons and caribou.
For those of you blaming big oil here’s more proof it’s Biden
— jason eastlick (@EastlickJason) April 26, 2022
While the Trump administration’s plan called for allowing oil development in most of the NPR-A, it also had leasing restrictions aimed at, among other things, reducing the impact on the land surface and limiting activity during certain seasons.
The NPR-A is roughly the size of Indiana and is the country’s largest unit of public land. Several environmental groups prefer to call it the Western Arctic.
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Report: Biden administration opposes ban on Russian oil, but wants world to reduce its reliance on it
March 6th, 2022
WASHINGTON, DC — President Joe Biden wants the U.S. and other countries to reduce their consumption of oil and gas in order to “punish” Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Biden also does not want an outright ban of Russian oil and gas, despite calls from both Democrats and Republicans to do so.
Tomorrow I will introduce legislation in the Senate to reopen American energy production full throttle and reverse Joe Biden’s disastrous capitulation to our enemies https://t.co/xEBG5fabzf
— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) February 28, 2022
Breitbart News reported that several senators and even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi want a ban on Russian energy import:
“There is growing support from Congress in a ban on oil imports from Russia.
“Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Jon Tester (D-MT) announced legislation on Thursday that would ban Russian energy imports.
“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also endorsed the idea during her press conference on Thursday.
‘‘I’m all for that — ban it,’ she said. ‘Ban the oil coming from Russia.’”
The same report also noted that White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that Biden and his administration were not interested in banning imports of oil from Russia because reducing the supply would only increase prices and enrich the Russians.
BREAKING: Jen Psaki just said that we need to reduce our reliance on foreign oil, but doesn’t want to increase American gas and oil production pic.twitter.com/QNXx2drbMy
— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) February 27, 2022
Psaki lectured reporters at her daily briefing, reminding everyone that Europe and the U.S. simply need to reduce their consumption of oil:
“What this is all a reminder of in the president’s view is our need to reduce our reliance on oil. The Europeans need to do that. We need to do that.”
When asked about how much Russian oil is imported, Psaki tried to downplay the amount, even though Breitbart News reported that imports of crude oil to the U.S. have doubled from a year ago.
Reporter to Psaki: "As long as we're buying Russian oil … aren't we financing the war?" pic.twitter.com/3sbKRRIfNk
— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) March 3, 2022
“It’s only about ten percent of what we’re importing.”
She also said the White House was looking for actions that maximize the impact on President Putin, but minimize it for the American people.
Psaki ROASTED by Reporter Over Her ABSURD Claim on Russian Oil pic.twitter.com/V18atn6jVj
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) March 4, 2022
Psaki pointed out that there is no “strategic interest” in the reduction of Russian oil and gas:
“We don’t have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy.”
Jen Psaki claimed we have no "strategic interest" in banning Russian oil imports.
American energy independence is in our nation's strategic interest.
— Lance Gooden (@Lancegooden) March 4, 2022
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday mimicked the same line of thinking during an interview with “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd.
During the interview, Blinken said the U.S. is “looking” at banning Russian oil nearly two weeks after Putin invaded Ukraine.
Blinken suggested to Todd that the U.S. would not unilaterally make a decision to ban Russian oil. He told Todd:
“We are looking, uh, again as we speak, in coordination with allies and partners, at this prospect of banning [Russian] oil imports.”
When Todd pushed back and asked if a unilateral decision would be made by the U.S. to ban Russian oil and gas, Blinken responded vaguely, using the terms coordination and coordinating four times:
“A hallmark of everything we’ve done to date has been this coordination with allies and partners.
“We are much more effective across the board when we’re doing things together, uh, in as close to coordination as possible.
“There are instances where, uh, we each do something a little bit different, but it complements, uh, the whole.
“So, in the first instance, uh, we want to make sure that we’re acting in coordination.
“I’m not going to rule out taking action one way or another, uh, irrespective of what they do, but everything we’ve done — the approach starts with coordinating with allies and partners.”
Despite no ban on Russian oil and gas, the Biden administration and European governments are trying to impose sanctions on Russia to force it to end its attack against Ukraine.
So far, sanctions against Russia appear to be hurting innocent civilians instead of the Russian government.
New York Times reported:
“The harsh penalties — which have hammered the ruble, shut down Russia’s stock market and prompted bank runs — contradict previous declarations by U.S. officials that they would refrain from inflicting pain on ordinary Russians.
“‘We target them carefully to avoid even the appearance of targeting the average Russian civilian,’ Daleep Singh, the deputy national security adviser for international economics, said at a White House briefing last month.
“The escalation in sanctions this week has occurred much faster than many officials had anticipated, largely because European leaders have embraced the most aggressive measures proposed by Washington, U.S. officials said.
“The Biden administration said on Thursday that it would not offer sanctions relief amid Mr. Putin’s increasingly brutal offensive.”
The goal is to instigate anger amongst Russians and to foment street protests, New York Times reported:
“The thinking among some U.S. and European officials is that Mr. Putin might stop the war if enough streets and enough tycoons turn on him.
“Other U.S. officials emphasize the goals of punishment and future deterrence, saying that the carcass of the Russian economy will serve as a visible consequence of Mr. Putin’s actions and a warning for other aggressors.”
The Ukrainian leader advocated for banning Russian oil imports and suspending all commercial transactions, like Visa and Mastercard, a senator on the call told CNN.https://t.co/XhBvUmGDYO
— CNN (@CNN) March 5, 2022
New York Times further reported:
“But Russia’s $1.5 trillion economy is the world’s 11th largest. No countries have tried pushing an economy of that size to the brink of collapse, with unknown consequences for the world.
“And the actions of the United States and Europe could pave the way for a new type of great-power conflict in the future.
“The moves have also ignited questions in Washington and in European capitals over whether cascading events in Russia could lead to ‘regime change,’ or rulership collapse, which President Biden and European leaders are careful to avoid mentioning.
“‘This isn’t the Russian people’s war,’ Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said in a news conference on Wednesday. But, he added, ‘the Russian people will suffer the consequences of their leaders’ choices.’
“‘The economic costs that we’ve been forced to impose on Russia are not aimed at you,’ he said. ‘They are aimed at compelling your government to stop its actions, to stop its aggression.’”
The sanctions are affecting the poorest to the richest. New York Times reported:
“The harshest sanctions by far are ones that prevent the Central Bank of Russia from tapping into much of its $643 billion in foreign currency reserves, which has led to a steep drop in the value of the ruble.
“Panic has set in across Russia. Citizens are scrambling to withdraw money from banks, preferably in dollars, and some are fleeing the country.
“The United States and Europe also announced new sanctions this week against oligarchs with close ties to Mr. Putin.
“Officials are moving to seize their houses, yachts and private jets around the world.
“French officials on Thursday snatched the superyacht of Igor Sechin, the chief executive of Rosneft, the Russian state oil giant.”
Earlier this week, global payment processors, such as PayPal, American Express, Visa and Mastercard, shut down their services in Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on companies to halt all business in Russia during a video call with U.S. lawmakers.
This is such a shallow move and speaks volumes about how western companies are using the war tragedy more for PR stunts than actually thinking through the consequences of these changes.
This hurts more the Russian populace than the government that I'm fairly sure hardly uses PP.
— Eroth9 (@X4vi0uR) March 5, 2022
The fallout from companies suspending their services in Russia is that Russian citizens are now being financially impacted as they are expelled from the Western financial system.
Two of the biggest payment processing firms in the world announced they were suspending operations in #Russia.#Mastercard and #Visa said Russian banks would be cut off from their networks and their cards would not work at Russian merchants or ATMs.https://t.co/bdUOub8z9H
— NTD News (@news_ntd) March 6, 2022
The move has caused Russia to get closer to China, which has drawn mixed reviews.
Russian Banks Switch To Chinese Card System As AmEx Joins Visa & MasterCard In Suspending Russian Operations https://t.co/rft5YerQej
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2022
“Reuters has confirmed this development, writing that ‘several Russian banks said on Sunday they would soon start issuing cards using the Chinese UnionPay card operator’s system coupled with Russia’s own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard said they were suspending operations in Russia.’
“State-owned UnionPay is the provider of most card payments in China.
Guess what? After VISA and Mastercard pulled out of Russia, Russian banks will now start issuing cards using China's UnionPay, linking them with MIR.
The West is shooting itself in the foot. It's not punishing Russia; it's bringing Eurasia and Global South closer together.
— Richard Medhurst (@richimedhurst) March 6, 2022
“Announcements regarding the switch to UnionPay came on Sunday from Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, as well as Alfa Bank and Tinkoff.
“As Bloomberg adds, the move could allow Russians to make some payments overseas, with UnionPay operating in 180 countries and regions.
“Visa and Mastercard said that any transactions initiated with their cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country from March 10.
“The Bank of Russia is also temporarily reducing the amount of information commercial banks are required to publish in an effort to limit the risks from international sanctions.
Whatever you think of Russia, you cannot deny that the world is actually not in agreement on Ukraine. I know corporate media want you to think that the West = the whole world, but that's clearly not what's going on. There's a global realignment happening.
— Richard Medhurst (@richimedhurst) March 6, 2022
“Starting with statements for February, banks will no longer have to release accounts prepared to national standards or make any additional disclosures on their websites, the central bank said in a statement.
“The central bank of Russia advised its citizens to use cash abroad.
“It said Mir cards could also be used in Turkey, Vietnam, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.”
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) recently appeared to suggest via his Twitter post on March 3 that Putin needs to be assassinated:
“Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military? The only way this ends is for somebody in Russia to take this guy out. You would be doing your country – and the world – a great service.
“The only people who can fix this are the Russian people.
“Easy to say, hard to do.
“Unless you want to live in darkness for the rest of your life, be isolated from the rest of the world in abject poverty, and live in darkness you need to step up to the plate.”
The only people who can fix this are the Russian people.
Easy to say, hard to do.
Unless you want to live in darkness for the rest of your life, be isolated from the rest of the world in abject poverty, and live in darkness you need to step up to the plate.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) March 4, 2022
Graham also recently said on Fox News:
“The best way for this to end is having Eliot Ness or Wyatt Earp in Russia, the Russian Spring, so to speak, where people rise up and take him down.”
“So, I’m hoping somebody in Russia will understand that he’s destroying Russia, and you need to take this guy out by any means possible.”
Russia has helped MADURO weather US sanctions by continuing to facilitate the Venezuelan oil trade.
Now, with the US considering sanctions on Russian oil, there are increasing backchannel conversations about tapping Venezuelan oil as a substitute. https://t.co/LSu8eclb8M
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) March 5, 2022
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