As Predicted, Violent Crime Increased in 2016
Violent crime and homicides increased in 2016.
From the FBI:
The estimated number of violent crimes in the nation increased for the second straight year, rising 4.1 percent in 2016 when compared with 2015 data, according to the FBI.
In 2016, there were an estimated 1,248,185 violent crimes.
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased 8.6 percent when compared with estimates from 2015.
Aggravated assault and rape (legacy definition) offenses increased 5.1 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, and robbery increased 1.2 percent, FBI.
Is America Entering a New Era of Increasing Violence?
Yes, violent crime (and fear of crime) is increasing throughout the United States. We predicted the increase for 2015 based on crimes reported to police, and we correctly predicted another increase in 2016.
According to FBI data, it’s rare for the rate of violent crime to increase for one year only.
Per Gallup, crime and fear of crime are at record high levels, Crime in America.
What Crime Wave?
Dozens of authoritative sources, major newspapers and criminologists insisted that violent crime was not increasing.
The following is from the Marshall Project:
What crime wave? 2017 is on pace to have the second-lowest crime rate since 1990, according to a preliminary analysis of crime statistics from the nation’s 30 largest cities. The murder rate is projected to be down nationally 2.5 percent thanks in part to significant drops in New York, Houston, and Detroit. The murder rate is, however, up from its low of 2013, THE WASHINGTON POST. Related: Read the report. BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE.
As stated in both reports, First, the long-term trend toward safer cities isn’t going anywhere. The evidence conclusively shows there is currently no national crime wave.
Criminologists made similar claims of declining violence based on historical averages. They insisted that we have never lived in safer times.
We Have Never Lived in Safer Times?
Yes, historically, the country is experiencing low rates of crime. The last two decades have seen remarkable reductions in violent crime.
But with the flattening rates for violent crime in 2014, increases in violent crime for 2015 and 2016, saying that violent crime is decreasing (based on historical lows) is an insult to truth, ethics, and to victims of crime.
We predicted that violent crime would increase for all of 2016 based on multiple newspaper articles examining state and local crime rates. There were hundreds of news reports as to rising violent crime.
It’s like saying that historically; major hurricanes (category three and above) haven’t hit the US since 2005 (NOAA) when all of us are grappling with the results of recent and massive storms.
Shall we tell millions of hurricane victims that have no right to complain, that they have never lived in safer times?
From the New York Times
…last year was the first time violent crime increased in consecutive years since 2005 and 2006, according to the F.B.I. data…
“This is ominous,” said Mark Kleiman, a criminologist at New York University’s Marron Institute of Urban Management. “What you worry about is that the trend is broken, and the numbers are going to go back up. A 20 percent increase in homicides over the past two years is not trivial. We’ve got what looks like a serious problem here.” New York Times
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr. – Thirty-five years of speaking for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Post-Masters’ Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.