WASHINGTON D.C. – While votes are still being counted, let’s look at some interesting information gleaned from exit polls and their corresponding demographics. For example, exit polling results have shown stark differences between those who voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
According to ABC’s national exit poll of roughly 15,000 people, those who voted for Biden by big margins included those who were not married, secular and not working full time.
The economic argument was tinged by COVID IMO. As employed people began to burn through their savings over successive lockdown-reopen cycles. The shift in the salary groups came through. Majority making six figures and above voting Trump. Most of those below voting Biden. pic.twitter.com/UAX0Ttr9B2— ChrisAtRU (@ChrisRUEcon) November 8, 2020
In addition, many supported Biden’s plans for restrictive lockdowns and other mandates to tackle Covid-19.
Specifically, people who were not married reported voting Democrat over Republican by a margin of 18 points: 58 percent were Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans.
According to estimates provided by exit polls, Biden:— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) November 15, 2020
➡️Won first-time voters by 66%
➡️Won voters aged 18 to 24 (9% of voters) by 67%
➡️Won voters aged 25 to 29 (7% of voters) by 55%
➡️Won voters aged 30 to 39 (16% of voters) by 52%https://t.co/zcRYkKVWjS
Married voters tended to vote Republican, with a margin of seven points: 53 percent were Republicans and 46 percent were Democrats.
Exit polling indicates that Democrat policies were approved by a majority of unmarried voters and those who did not work full time.
Younger black voters (under 35) broke for Bernie over Biden according to exit polls. Just correcting as people online see us as a monolith but I and many of my friends in no way supported anything to do with Biden in the primary.— Demonta Barrino ? (@DemontaBarrino) November 17, 2020
Of people who are not currently working a full-time job, 57 percent reported voting Democrat, while only 42 percent voted Republican.
For those who do work a full week, 51 percent identified as Republicans and 47 percent as Democrats.
The country is shutting down two weeks before the most important month of the retail industry. Many malls & brick stores, already seeing the writing on the wall may not live through another year. Somebody once said, "It's the economy stupid!" Yet people still voted for Biden. pic.twitter.com/0nqktZqH1e— Tuan Pham (@15minofPham) November 14, 2020
In terms of religion, Christians voted Republican over Democrat by a large margin of 60 percent versus 39 percent.
For those who identified as not religious, 65 percent were Democrats versus 31 percent being Republicans.
One major thing covid ruined that i miss so much is going to physical church. Praise and worship in the sanctuary with other believers is top 2 and it’s not 2.— azure$ (@azurebleu_) November 15, 2020
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The Western Journal noted that exit polling from the Associated Press’ VoteCast survey asked approximately 140,000 voters about the frequency with which they attend church or other religious services:
“Biden won big with those who rarely or never attend church.
“President Donald Trump, meanwhile, carried voters who attend religious services once a week or more by a margin of 62 percent to 37 percent.
“Trump also won over voters who attend religious services a few times a month 54 percent to 44 percent, and he won once-a-month churchgoers by an almost-identical margin of 54 to 45.
“Biden, meanwhile, grabbed 63 percent of voters who reported ‘never’ going to church.”
In its opinion piece, The Western Journal commented that those who reported not working full time, not being married and not attending religious services seemed more supportive of Biden because his plans to shutter the economy due to Covid-19 would have less impact on them as opposed to those who reported working full time, being married and attending religious services:
“Not to denigrate those who might not work full-time, are not married or do not attend religious services, but they are arguably less likely to be affected by Biden’s plans for the economy as, if declared the winner, he would likely use the coronavirus as a pretext to clamp down on those who attend in-person religious services and go to work.
“Biden has signaled he would have few reservations about shuttering the economy.
“We of course know after looking at the effects of lockdowns that they kill jobs and also create a plethora of other issues — from mental health to substance abuse — for many people.
“For some persons who might already be home all day, alone in the world and without meaningful company, lockdown measures might be of little consequence, so long as liquor stores remain open and cat food is widely available, one could assume.
“People who live lives that might for now be void of any meaningful relationships, gainful employment or faith arguably have little invested in the future of the country, and perhaps even less invested in what our country’s young people will someday inherit.
“While voting demographics are generally looked at through a lens of ethnicity, age and gender, the breakdown of votes is eye-opening, considering the chaotic nature of the 2020 election and the coronavirus pandemic.”
Shutting down businesses and paying people for lost wages for 4-6 weeks could control the pandemic and revive the economy until a vaccine is approved and distributed, said Biden coronavirus advisor Dr. Michael Osterholm. https://t.co/SODSmHpcDt— CNBC Politics (@CNBCPolitics) November 11, 2020
The polls suggest that lockdown proposals have less impact on those who do not have to leave their home to go to work, take care of family obligations or attend religious functions.
The Western Journal’s takeaway from the polling was more blunt:
“Forward-looking people in many circumstances voted Republican, while a majority of those with life factors that might have them living in the now were unbothered by Democratic proposals to cede away their liberties and the country’s future prosperity.”
Another point to keep in mind is that demography is not necessarily destiny as John Burn-Murdoch pointed out with his analysis of U.S. exit polls.
He noted that precinct-level data supported exit polls indicating a non-white shift towards Trump:
“At first glance, the precinct-level data do support the exit poll’s finding of a non-white shift towards Trump: Majority-black, -Latino and -Asian neighbourhoods in Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona and California all returned higher vote shares for Trump this year vs 2016.”
1) At first glance, the precinct-level data do support the exit poll’s finding of a non-white shift towards Trump:— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) November 16, 2020
Majority-black, -Latino and -Asian neighbourhoods in Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona and California all returned higher vote shares for Trump this year vs 2016. pic.twitter.com/iIp35ifEzU
However, Burn-Murdoch said that while Trump earned more non-white votes than in 2016, the increased number of Democrats turned some areas blue or kept them that way.
?THREAD?— Elizabeth Harrington (@LizRNC) November 10, 2020
Unusual turnout in Democrat-controlled areas where we have also uncovered serious allegations of fraud
President Trump performed about the same in these counties as in 2016
Yet Joe Biden's totals surged where the counting was paused and Democrats were way behind
Interestingly, he noted that majority-black precincts in Atlanta swung slightly towards Trump, but majority-white areas went toward Biden and that the overall increased number of blue voters in Georgia shifted the race:
“If black voters went 94% D vs 5% R in 2016, then 93D vs 6R in 2020, that’s a 2pt shift to Trump. But if turnout rose by 3%, the margin in *number of votes* actually goes more blue, because the [increase] in votes cast *among a very D demographic* offsets switching from D to R.
“That’s exactly what happened in Atlanta, except turnout actually rose by 7% in majority-black areas, so altho people focused on a small pro-Trump % shift, these neighbourhoods actually delivered a net 15,000 vote swing to Biden (who currently leads Trump in GA by 14,172 votes).”
4) That’s exactly what happened in Atlanta, except turnout actually rose by 7% in majority-black areas, so altho people focused on a small pro-Trump % shift, these neighbourhoods actually delivered a net 15,000 vote swing to Biden (who currently leads Trump in GA by 14,172 votes) pic.twitter.com/hbnwyEfePx— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) November 16, 2020
Burn-Murdoch said percentage point swings are interesting for seeing how the electorate changes its mind, but that it is critical to factor in turnout before concluding that any one group did or did not propel a candidate to victory:
“Demography is not destiny. If any Dems were operating on the basis that a diversifying county will naturally shift the needle in their direction, these results cast that into severe doubt.
“Terms like ‘black,’ ‘Latino,’ ‘Asian’ etc mask huge political diversity within each of those labels. Or as @lorellapraeli told @christinezhang, ‘You need to understand that [Latinos] are different in New Mexico, and we are different in Nevada, and different in Florida.'”
15) Terms like "black", "Latino", "Asian" etc mask huge political diversity within each of those labels.— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) November 16, 2020
Or as @lorellapraeli told @christinezhang, "You need to understand that [Latinos] are different in New Mexico, and we are different in Nevada, and different in Florida."
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